Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20 2021 | 10177 | 44372 | 322 | 92 | 388 | 629 |
| January 21 2021 | 10233 | 44497 | 322 | 95 | 424 | 603 |
| January 22 2021 | 10271 | 44619 | 323 | 97 | 415 | 589 |
| January 23 2021 | 10311 | 44728 | 323 | 97 | 390 | 591 |
| January 24 2021 | 10350 | 44848 | 324 | 97 | 369 | 561 |
| January 25 2021 | 10370 | 44887 | 326 | 97 | 348 | 561 |
| January 26 2021 | 10389 | 44979 | 330 | 97 | 330 | 533 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.4 | 8.5% | 28 | 0.24% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 4.9 | 13% | 43 | 0.32% | 67 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 7.6 | 21.8% | 72 | 0.34% | 111 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 6.1 | 17% | 56 | 0.41% | 84 | 0.62% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 4.7 | 13.3% | 44 | 0.42% | 70 | 0.67% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 4.3 | 11.2% | 37 | 0.29% | 64 | 0.51% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.0 | 7.9% | 26 | 0.23% | 56 | 0.49% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.6 | 7.3% | 24 | 0.23% | 42 | 0.4% |
| All ages | 19 | 36.6 | 100% | 330 | 0.32% | 533 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20 2021 | 6560 | 26237 | 197 | 74 | 296 | 493 |
| January 21 2021 | 6599 | 26316 | 199 | 74 | 304 | 506 |
| January 22 2021 | 6642 | 26392 | 200 | 76 | 299 | 466 |
| January 23 2021 | 6657 | 26463 | 200 | 76 | 302 | 430 |
| January 24 2021 | 6681 | 26515 | 200 | 76 | 252 | 417 |
| January 25 2021 | 6693 | 26544 | 200 | 76 | 239 | 398 |
| January 26 2021 | 6710 | 26597 | 201 | 77 | 226 | 367 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.7 | 6.6% | 15 | 0.19% | 28 | 0.36% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 3.6 | 13.7% | 31 | 0.37% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.0 | 11.5% | 26 | 0.37% | 36 | 0.51% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 3.4 | 15.9% | 36 | 0.43% | 67 | 0.8% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 5.0 | 18.6% | 42 | 0.54% | 63 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 2.7 | 13.7% | 31 | 0.32% | 61 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.1 | 8.4% | 19 | 0.23% | 38 | 0.45% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.3 | 11.5% | 26 | 0.37% | 32 | 0.45% |
| All ages | 17 | 23.9 | 100% | 226 | 0.35% | 367 | 0.57% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20 2021 | 4929 | 17540 | 209 | 66 | 205 | 344 |
| January 21 2021 | 4950 | 17565 | 210 | 66 | 213 | 321 |
| January 22 2021 | 4984 | 17651 | 210 | 66 | 224 | 305 |
| January 23 2021 | 5006 | 17686 | 212 | 68 | 234 | 301 |
| January 24 2021 | 5024 | 17724 | 212 | 68 | 219 | 300 |
| January 25 2021 | 5036 | 17730 | 213 | 68 | 196 | 299 |
| January 26 2021 | 5043 | 17767 | 213 | 69 | 182 | 283 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.7% | 5 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.3 | 17% | 31 | 0.57% | 44 | 0.81% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.9 | 14.8% | 27 | 0.6% | 35 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 2.4 | 10.4% | 19 | 0.35% | 37 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.4 | 13.7% | 25 | 0.5% | 37 | 0.74% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.7 | 15.4% | 28 | 0.41% | 51 | 0.75% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.7 | 13.2% | 24 | 0.38% | 35 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.6 | 12.6% | 23 | 0.36% | 35 | 0.55% |
| All ages | 7 | 18.6 | 100% | 182 | 0.4% | 283 | 0.63% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20 2021 | 11163 | 47693 | 287 | 68 | 446 | 681 |
| January 21 2021 | 11193 | 47815 | 292 | 69 | 418 | 648 |
| January 22 2021 | 11217 | 47967 | 292 | 69 | 400 | 624 |
| January 23 2021 | 11279 | 48077 | 292 | 70 | 377 | 588 |
| January 24 2021 | 11299 | 48149 | 293 | 70 | 372 | 582 |
| January 25 2021 | 11382 | 48266 | 297 | 70 | 422 | 607 |
| January 26 2021 | 11417 | 48422 | 315 | 70 | 412 | 600 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 3.0 | 7.5% | 31 | 0.26% | 46 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 9.7 | 20.4% | 84 | 0.51% | 102 | 0.62% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 10.4 | 19.4% | 80 | 0.38% | 120 | 0.56% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 5.3 | 13.3% | 55 | 0.4% | 89 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 6.0 | 13.8% | 57 | 0.42% | 84 | 0.62% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 5.7 | 11.9% | 49 | 0.35% | 71 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.7 | 7.5% | 31 | 0.22% | 49 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.1 | 6.1% | 25 | 0.19% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 35 | 45.0 | 100% | 412 | 0.35% | 600 | 0.51% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20 2021 | 36589 | 303293 | 1108 | 228 | 1198 | 2252 |
| January 21 2021 | 36746 | 304217 | 1109 | 228 | 1220 | 2023 |
| January 22 2021 | 36944 | 305563 | 1112 | 228 | 1311 | 1936 |
| January 23 2021 | 37078 | 307082 | 1115 | 229 | 1335 | 1889 |
| January 24 2021 | 37193 | 308041 | 1121 | 231 | 1206 | 1802 |
| January 25 2021 | 37285 | 308444 | 1124 | 229 | 1159 | 1759 |
| January 26 2021 | 37352 | 309153 | 1128 | 240 | 1055 | 1719 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 5.0 | 4.5% | 48 | 0.08% | 86 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 13.9 | 12.4% | 131 | 0.18% | 217 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 8 | 26.1 | 23.2% | 245 | 0.24% | 417 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 20.3 | 18.6% | 196 | 0.26% | 306 | 0.4% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 14.7 | 12.8% | 135 | 0.21% | 227 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 15 | 16.6 | 13.3% | 140 | 0.21% | 228 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 8.7 | 8.8% | 93 | 0.17% | 140 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 3 | 7.4 | 6.4% | 67 | 0.14% | 98 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 67 | 112.7 | 100% | 1055 | 0.19% | 1719 | 0.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20 2021 | 525924 | 2450522 | 23363 | 5562 | 19034 | 31177 |
| January 21 2021 | 528101 | 2457032 | 23445 | 5607 | 19755 | 29563 |
| January 22 2021 | 530171 | 2463344 | 23536 | 5643 | 19035 | 28159 |
| January 23 2021 | 531852 | 2469123 | 23625 | 5685 | 18582 | 26794 |
| January 24 2021 | 532971 | 2474335 | 23692 | 5691 | 16989 | 26081 |
| January 25 2021 | 533917 | 2477588 | 23748 | 5699 | 15666 | 25571 |
| January 26 2021 | 535218 | 2481735 | 23883 | 5753 | 15030 | 24082 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 67 | 90.3 | 5.9% | 884 | 0.14% | 1456 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 140 | 192.0 | 12.7% | 1916 | 0.25% | 2965 | 0.39% |
| 20-29 | 190 | 250.4 | 16.1% | 2415 | 0.32% | 3958 | 0.52% |
| 30-39 | 202 | 234.0 | 15.4% | 2316 | 0.31% | 3683 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 192 | 209.6 | 13.4% | 2014 | 0.29% | 3258 | 0.47% |
| 50-59 | 235 | 232.9 | 14.9% | 2242 | 0.28% | 3607 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 152 | 177.7 | 11.4% | 1717 | 0.23% | 2764 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 123 | 158.3 | 10.2% | 1526 | 0.24% | 2391 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 1301 | 1545.1 | 100% | 15030 | 0.26% | 24082 | 0.41% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.9 | 49.3 | 53 | 36.6 | 48.6 | 25.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56.8 | 23.9 | 39.7 | 28% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62.5 | 18.6 | 23 | 31% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.7 | 61.6 | 56.4 | 45 | 52.4 | 26.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31.4 | 30.5 | 40.1 | 112.7 | 159.7 | 11.4% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.4 | 39.2 | 52.3 | 1545.1 | 2319.9 | 22.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4920"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges