My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 20 2021 10177 44372 322 92 388 629
January 21 2021 10233 44497 322 95 424 603
January 22 2021 10271 44619 323 97 415 589
January 23 2021 10311 44728 323 97 390 591
January 24 2021 10350 44848 324 97 369 561
January 25 2021 10370 44887 326 97 348 561
January 26 2021 10389 44979 330 97 330 533
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 3.4 8.5% 28 0.24% 39 0.34%
10-19 1 4.9 13% 43 0.32% 67 0.49%
20-29 3 7.6 21.8% 72 0.34% 111 0.53%
30-39 4 6.1 17% 56 0.41% 84 0.62%
40-49 1 4.7 13.3% 44 0.42% 70 0.67%
50-59 6 4.3 11.2% 37 0.29% 64 0.51%
60-69 1 3.0 7.9% 26 0.23% 56 0.49%
70+ 1 2.6 7.3% 24 0.23% 42 0.4%
All ages 19 36.6 100% 330 0.32% 533 0.51%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 20 2021 6560 26237 197 74 296 493
January 21 2021 6599 26316 199 74 304 506
January 22 2021 6642 26392 200 76 299 466
January 23 2021 6657 26463 200 76 302 430
January 24 2021 6681 26515 200 76 252 417
January 25 2021 6693 26544 200 76 239 398
January 26 2021 6710 26597 201 77 226 367
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.7 6.6% 15 0.19% 28 0.36%
10-19 1 3.6 13.7% 31 0.37% 42 0.5%
20-29 2 3.0 11.5% 26 0.37% 36 0.51%
30-39 1 3.4 15.9% 36 0.43% 67 0.8%
40-49 5 5.0 18.6% 42 0.54% 63 0.81%
50-59 4 2.7 13.7% 31 0.32% 61 0.63%
60-69 1 2.1 8.4% 19 0.23% 38 0.45%
70+ 2 2.3 11.5% 26 0.37% 32 0.45%
All ages 17 23.9 100% 226 0.35% 367 0.57%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 20 2021 4929 17540 209 66 205 344
January 21 2021 4950 17565 210 66 213 321
January 22 2021 4984 17651 210 66 224 305
January 23 2021 5006 17686 212 68 234 301
January 24 2021 5024 17724 212 68 219 300
January 25 2021 5036 17730 213 68 196 299
January 26 2021 5043 17767 213 69 182 283
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.6 2.7% 5 0.09% 9 0.17%
10-19 1 2.3 17% 31 0.57% 44 0.81%
20-29 0 2.9 14.8% 27 0.6% 35 0.77%
30-39 3 2.4 10.4% 19 0.35% 37 0.68%
40-49 1 2.4 13.7% 25 0.5% 37 0.74%
50-59 1 2.7 15.4% 28 0.41% 51 0.75%
60-69 0 2.7 13.2% 24 0.38% 35 0.55%
70+ 1 2.6 12.6% 23 0.36% 35 0.55%
All ages 7 18.6 100% 182 0.4% 283 0.63%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 20 2021 11163 47693 287 68 446 681
January 21 2021 11193 47815 292 69 418 648
January 22 2021 11217 47967 292 69 400 624
January 23 2021 11279 48077 292 70 377 588
January 24 2021 11299 48149 293 70 372 582
January 25 2021 11382 48266 297 70 422 607
January 26 2021 11417 48422 315 70 412 600
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 3.0 7.5% 31 0.26% 46 0.39%
10-19 2 9.7 20.4% 84 0.51% 102 0.62%
20-29 1 10.4 19.4% 80 0.38% 120 0.56%
30-39 5 5.3 13.3% 55 0.4% 89 0.65%
40-49 10 6.0 13.8% 57 0.42% 84 0.62%
50-59 6 5.7 11.9% 49 0.35% 71 0.5%
60-69 2 2.7 7.5% 31 0.22% 49 0.35%
70+ 3 2.1 6.1% 25 0.19% 39 0.3%
All ages 35 45.0 100% 412 0.35% 600 0.51%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 20 2021 36589 303293 1108 228 1198 2252
January 21 2021 36746 304217 1109 228 1220 2023
January 22 2021 36944 305563 1112 228 1311 1936
January 23 2021 37078 307082 1115 229 1335 1889
January 24 2021 37193 308041 1121 231 1206 1802
January 25 2021 37285 308444 1124 229 1159 1759
January 26 2021 37352 309153 1128 240 1055 1719
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 4 5.0 4.5% 48 0.08% 86 0.14%
10-19 8 13.9 12.4% 131 0.18% 217 0.31%
20-29 8 26.1 23.2% 245 0.24% 417 0.4%
30-39 13 20.3 18.6% 196 0.26% 306 0.4%
40-49 7 14.7 12.8% 135 0.21% 227 0.35%
50-59 15 16.6 13.3% 140 0.21% 228 0.35%
60-69 9 8.7 8.8% 93 0.17% 140 0.26%
70+ 3 7.4 6.4% 67 0.14% 98 0.2%
All ages 67 112.7 100% 1055 0.19% 1719 0.31%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 20 2021 525924 2450522 23363 5562 19034 31177
January 21 2021 528101 2457032 23445 5607 19755 29563
January 22 2021 530171 2463344 23536 5643 19035 28159
January 23 2021 531852 2469123 23625 5685 18582 26794
January 24 2021 532971 2474335 23692 5691 16989 26081
January 25 2021 533917 2477588 23748 5699 15666 25571
January 26 2021 535218 2481735 23883 5753 15030 24082
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 67 90.3 5.9% 884 0.14% 1456 0.23%
10-19 140 192.0 12.7% 1916 0.25% 2965 0.39%
20-29 190 250.4 16.1% 2415 0.32% 3958 0.52%
30-39 202 234.0 15.4% 2316 0.31% 3683 0.49%
40-49 192 209.6 13.4% 2014 0.29% 3258 0.47%
50-59 235 232.9 14.9% 2242 0.28% 3607 0.44%
60-69 152 177.7 11.4% 1717 0.23% 2764 0.37%
70+ 123 158.3 10.2% 1526 0.24% 2391 0.37%
All ages 1301 1545.1 100% 15030 0.26% 24082 0.41%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
50.9 49.3 53 36.6 48.6 25.6%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
56.8 23.9 39.7 28%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
62.5 18.6 23 31%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
50.7 61.6 56.4 45 52.4 26.9%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
31.4 30.5 40.1 112.7 159.7 11.4%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
41.4 39.2 52.3 1545.1 2319.9 22.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-16 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4920"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red